The Science

 This record High graph below is from the BBC and is typical: July 2023

Scientists have realised for many years that the release of CO2 from burning fossil fuels would heat the planet. Scientists made models that predicted positive feedback from methane release and loss of ice albedo would accelerate global warming, although the models underestimated the rate and the extreme events.

In September 2023 the global air temperature hit another record, according to Copernicus, exceeding the 1.5C figure. Also massive ice loss from Antarctica.

The ice core record from polar ice tell us what happened in ages past.

The highest blue green and red peaks are the thousand year 'Hot Earth' periods, the rest are ice ages. The blue line is CO2, it first declines then increases during ice ages, probably due to fires, up to a peak, then it falls again.

We must remember that CO2 is desirable, essential for all plants, while methane breaks down after a decade or so to more CO2.

The red line is temperature, it goes up with CO2 to that peak lasting about a thousand years of hot Earth at about 4 C increase. Then it falls into a long ice age every time. The last peak was about 120,000 years ago, in our hunter gatherer stone age. After the last ice age we have the recent anomalous ten thousand years of stable climate, (the Holocene).

The brown lines show the sun’s variability which is cyclic too, but does not explain the ice age cycle.

The green line is for methane CH4, it gets released from decaying vegetation but note how sharp the peaks are. And note the modern values shown at the right. Today both CO2 and CH4 are even higher. We should concentrate on the methane level, because it dominates the hot Earth periods

The red temperature line can show us the tipping point of 1.5 C that is often mentioned. This seems to be to point where methane release takes over, and that is happening now. Note the recent few thousand years and the well known up tick now.

Here below is the alarming methane graph for the last few years.

Methane, CH4 is now about 2 parts per million (2000 parts per billion) while CO2 is over 400 parts per million, but methane is much more powerful as a greenhouse additive. Today that methane effect, as a change, is about equal to the effect of CO2.

The rising methane is not all man made, it is being released from wetlands (and previously frozen tundra), because of the previous warming from CO2.

Both CO2 and CH4 levels are way above the ice core peaks.

That is scientific common knowledge. But we know that warming is hitting new records, extreme weather is much more frequent. And now we are in 'el nino'.

El nino warming events occur every few years and warm the planet starting with overheated Pacific waters. But this is a record breaking el nino too. Scientists are worried.

 2024, may be worse, it will probably be worse. We do not know how long the hot Pacific will stay hot. UnCH4rtered waters!

But scientists tend not to have power to make changes. Engineers make changes and now engineers must be empowered to make a really big change: because we need a mirror in the Pacific.

Albedo is the reflectivity of the Earth. It is declining. 

The surface average temperature is set by the radiation of heat back into space while the sun warms us. The greenhouse effect is outward radiation being absorbed by water vapour, CO2 and CH4.

The albedo is different. It directly reflects incoming energy back to space.  Ice and clouds are very reflective, the oceans are rather dark. The oceans soak up heat from the sun. The ice and clouds are both reducing as the planet warms. 

So, the albedo is already declining now, this is a positive feedback for global warming,

This warming is going to be catastrophic for civilisation. The timescale is decades, not centuries, because of the increasing rate of Methane and the decreasing albedo. If the AMOC stops, it is too late, the Earth progresses to another ice age.

An ocean mirror will improve the albedo and kick more incoming solar energy back into space. It can compensate for the greenhouse effect.

A mirror could be done in a decade.

It will be possible in the future to pull CO2 out of the atmosphere and oceans, but it is taking too long. It will be possible to reduce CO2 emissions in the future but is not happening fast enough and it is too late, right now.

The Earth will survive, but our civilisation will not. Humans will no doubt survive, but not living as we know it.

The hot Earth period into which we are heading will have extreme weather, failed agriculture, more deserts, mass migration, raised sea levels and for good measure, less fish. Then the ice age.

What to do?

UnCH4rtered waters, Albedo enhancement.